
FAO’s vegetable oil price index averaged 199.2 points in October, up 0.3% from September and its highest level since mid-2022. Soybean oil rose to its highest price since late 2022 on biofuel demand and seasonally tighter South American supplies; sunflower oil rebounded amid Black Sea export and logistics constraints, while palm oil was little changed and rapeseed oil fell.
Biofuel demand and tighter export availability support soybean oil, while Black Sea disruptions constrain sunflower oil supply. Seasonal rapeseed availability and weaker EU bio-component demand are bearish for rapeseed oil, while firm import demand and lower production expectations support palm oil.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.