Global phosphate prices are reported to be 25%–30% above pre-conflict levels, while phosphate exports fell about 10% in the first half of 2026. Limited sulfur availability, restricted Chinese sulfuric acid and phosphate exports, Russian export stoppages, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are constraining fertilizer production and trade.
Sulfur and shipping constraints can limit phosphate fertilizer output and export availability, tightening supply and supporting prices. Continued disruption would keep upward pressure on phosphate fertilizer costs.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.