US CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in September 2026, up from 0.4%, and 3.7% year-on-year, above the 3.6% consensus. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.5% forecast.
Energy costs drove the headline increase, and shelter and vehicle costs drove core. The rupiah weakened 0.25% at the open.
Hotter-than-expected inflation raises expectations of a hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar, which pressures emerging-market currencies and raises the local cost of dollar-priced feed imports.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.