Brent traded at $96.91 per barrel and WTI at $89.85 on November 9 after President Donald Trump said he would not order further strikes on Iran while peace talks continue. Brent fell 16% the previous week, while renewed Middle East supply, higher production elsewhere and weak demand have pushed the oil market toward surplus.
Greater supply and soft demand point to a bearish crude balance, while easing geopolitical tensions could further reduce prices. Lower oil prices may ease Ukraine’s fuel and inflation costs and reduce Russia’s oil revenue.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.