
EUR/USD recovered to around 1.1150 as comments from ECB policymakers and eurozone inflation of 4% strengthened expectations of a possible December rate increase. A weaker dollar also supported the pair, although strong US employment figures and upcoming inflation data could limit further gains.
The prospect of tighter ECB policy supports the euro, while a weaker dollar lifts EUR/USD; the pair’s direction affects the relative cost of feed imports priced in dollars. Robust US jobs data remain a counterweight that could cap the move.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.