
Brent crude settled Friday at $117.64 a barrel, up 2.4%, after a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz by a small boat carrying explosive devices. Houthi militants reportedly claimed attacks on Saudi refinery and Aramco sites, and a Ukrainian strike hit a Russian refinery.
Oman evacuated 25 crew from the RITI after it was targeted, and Iran said three tankers were halted in the strait.
Attacks on Gulf export infrastructure and tanker traffic remove crude and refined product supply from a tight market, pushing up energy and diesel costs for feed millers and transport. The strong upward move in crude also supports biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils and corn.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.