Oil prices fell in early trading after President Donald Trump said further US attacks on Iran were unlikely if negotiations progress. The decline extended the previous week’s losses, while the US also announced an operation targeting Iran’s trade in weapons and sanctioned materials.
Reduced expectations of military escalation could ease fears of disruption to Middle Eastern crude supplies, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Continued regional tensions and sanctions-related actions may limit that downside.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.