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Brent and WTI edged higher late Friday as Trump said he would soon decide whether to pursue a peace agreement with Iran or take further military action. Despite the small daily gains, Brent was on track for a 17% weekly decline, with analysts citing reduced war premiums and signs of oversupply amid demand destruction.
Renewed attack concerns can add a geopolitical risk premium, but rising supply relative to demand and the large weekly fall point to broader bearish pressure on crude.
wealthinsights.metrobank.com.phNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
