
Brent traded below $98 a barrel and WTI near $90 on Monday, extending losses after oil’s steepest weekly decline since April 2020. Traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict against fresh attacks in the region, conflicting US statements and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
De-escalation expectations and the previous sharp price retreat are bearish for crude, while attacks and risks to oil infrastructure could limit further losses by threatening supply.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.