
China's pork output rose 7% year on year in the third quarter, with June-September output reaching 13.48 million metric tons, as producers accelerated slaughter to address overcapacity. Cash hog prices fell to 11.2 yuan per kg from above 17 yuan a year earlier, and the sow herd was 0.7% lower but still above target.
Heavier Chinese slaughter and a large herd glut mean weaker domestic hog prices and reduced hog-feed demand in China, though authorities are moving to cut sows, which could tighten supply in roughly nine months.
After 34 past bearish policy events, HOGS moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.