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A PIIE analysis examines whether a US-China trade deal would remove or only restructure the 2018 tariffs covering over $360 billion of trade. The authors note that the US may keep some duties even after a deal and that China may buy more US goods.
Whether tariffs are lifted or restructured determines how much Chinese demand for US soybeans, corn and other feed inputs returns. The uncertainty keeps trade-linked feed prices volatile.
piie.comApr 24, 2019After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
