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A PIIE commentary argues that scrapping NAFTA would sink the Mexican peso and widen the US trade deficit. It notes the peso has recovered to a level above its pre-election value as NAFTA renegotiation talks proceed.
The author says markets have shown little reaction to tough US rhetoric on the agreement.
Trade-policy risk to US-Mexico flows matters for feed buyers because Mexico is a major importer of US corn, soymeal and DDGS. Continued calm in the peso suggests no immediate change to Mexican purchasing power, but a NAFTA exit would threaten that demand.
piie.comCaroline FreundAug 29, 2017After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
