
A Congressional Research Service report reviews China's retaliatory tariffs of 5 to 25 percent on US agricultural and food exports. It covers the December 2018 truce and the January 7-9, 2019 Beijing talks, in which China agreed to make substantial agricultural purchases.
The outcome of the tariff talks determines whether US farm exports to China recover, which directly affects soybean, sorghum and wheat demand and price.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 137 past neutral policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.