The Incredible Reality of Grain Exports: Shipments in the First Months of the 2026/27 Season Fell by More Than Half Compared with Long-Term Averages

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• May 15, 2025Grain transshipment at Russian ports fell by more than 50% in 2025-3.9%
• Jun 11, 2019Ukraine: in the first week of June, the seaports halved grain shipment volumes-4.7%
• Jun 20, 2022The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports-2.9%
• Mar 16, 2020Ukraine: in the second week of March, the seaports halved grains shipments-3.2%
• Jul 6, 2018Russia resorts to ship-to-ship transfer to deal with increased grain export — RealnoeVremya.com-1.6%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jun 11, 2019Ukraine: in the first week of June, the seaports halved grain shipment volumes+6.2%
• Jun 20, 2022The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports-3.7%
• Mar 16, 2020Ukraine: in the second week of March, the seaports halved grains shipments-4.7%
• Jul 1, 2019Ukraine: in the fourth week of June, the seaports decreased grain shipment volumes+1.3%
• Feb 12, 2019Ukrainian seaports reduced grain shipments by 5 pct wk/wk — Latifundist.com+0.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.