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S&P Global analyst Daejin Lee says the Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in coming months. Danube river shipments from Ukraine and Romania have risen sharply but mostly on small vessels under 10,000 dwt, too small to offset lost Ukrainian cargo.
Border silos for inland transport will take months to build.
Limited Danube volumes mean world wheat and grain supply stays short through the Q3 harvest period, keeping prices supported for feed-grade wheat and corn.
spglobal.comJun 20, 2022After 283 past bullish logistics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
