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Mexican producers face a possible El Niño episode alongside prolonged drought, declining grain harvests, rising input costs and limited access to financing, insurance and infrastructure. National grain and oilseed production fell 16% between 2018 and 2026, while planted area also contracted.
Drought and the risk of further adverse weather could constrain Mexican grain and oilseed production, increasing the need for imports and supporting prices. Financial and infrastructure constraints may limit farmers’ ability to mitigate crop losses.
politica.expansion.mxBrenda YañezNov 8, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
