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The Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index fell 1.2% in the week, with NOLA urea down $7/ST and NOLA DAP down $1, while Cornbelt potash rose $5/ST. India called an urea tender earlier than expected, and Uralkali announced plans to expand potash capacity to 15 million tons by 2025.
An Indian urea tender supports global nitrogen prices and may open Chinese export flows, while expanded potash capacity is a longer-term bearish factor for potash costs.
linkedin.comDaniel HouderOct 7, 2019After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 36 past neutral trade events, DAP moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.0% to +2.1%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Published 2019-10-07, just before the move, it reports a weekly fertilizer price index decline and NOLA DAP down $1, pointing to softening fertilizer sentiment that plausibly contributed to the DAP drop.
Published 2019-10-07, before the move, it reports a weekly fertilizer index decline of 1.2% and NOLA DAP down $1, which points to soft DAP sentiment and plausibly contributed to the drop, though the DAP cut itself was small.
