Turkish DAP imports have slumped this year, with April-July arrivals only 43% of the three-year average as high international prices eroded farmer affordability. OCP has sent no DAP to Turkey via Jorf Lasfar since March, and Turkish farmers are relying more on domestic output.
Demand destruction in a major importer reduces global phosphate demand and pressures trade flows, which partly offsets the supply tightness supporting DAP prices.
After 36 past neutral trade events, DAP moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.0% to +2.1%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.