Oil prices rose after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they attacked Saudi deployments in Marib and Hadramout, renewing concerns about security in the Red Sea shipping corridor. Hopes that Iran and Oman could agree on a route through the Strait of Hormuz limited the gains.
Renewed threats to Red Sea shipping raise the risk of supply disruption and support crude prices, while a potential Hormuz shipping arrangement could ease supply concerns and cap the rally.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.