
Brent crude futures touched $96 per barrel before rebounding to $98.50 as efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war advanced late in the week. Hopes for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz reduced the conflict premium, after the war had depleted global oil inventories by nearly 700 million barrels.
A possible end to the conflict and reopening of Hormuz could restore supply and weigh on Brent prices. However, depleted inventories may take considerable time to rebuild, providing support and limiting the downside.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.