Rystad Energy estimates that Europe will spend at least $12 billion more on LNG in 2026 despite importing 24 million tonnes less, as disruption to Qatari and Emirati supply through the Strait of Hormuz forces buyers to replace cargoes. The analysis estimates the global LNG import bill will rise by $39 billion to $256.3 billion, with Europe particularly exposed because about 65% of its LNG is bought on the spot market.
Constrained Hormuz flows and Europe’s reliance on spot purchases raise replacement costs and increase upward pressure on European and global natural-gas prices.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.