
India has prepared a rabi contingency plan covering 225 districts after the southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% rainfall deficit amid a strengthening El Niño. The plan addresses crop choices, seed and fertilizer availability, and water management; recent rainfall in some districts may require adjustments.
Officials warned that inadequate winter-crop planting could affect wheat, pulses and oilseed output as food inflation remains elevated.
Low soil moisture and reservoir levels could constrain winter-crop planting and reduce supplies, supporting prices for affected crops, including wheat. Recent rainfall may ease some of that supply risk.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.