
The US dollar index rose 0.77% to 102.26 on November 6, its largest daily gain since June 17, after October payroll growth of 165,000 far exceeded expectations and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Markets raised the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate increase to nearly 80%, while traders awaited US inflation data to gauge whether the dollar’s rebound would continue.
A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-denominated agricultural commodities by making them more expensive for non-US buyers. Higher US rates and yields may also support the dollar and tighten financial conditions, although the direct commodity impact is indirect.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.