
A Cemaden meteorologist said El Niño could intensify in November and become the strongest since 1950, with effects potentially lasting through 2027. Brazil is already seeing above-average rain in parts of the South and Southeast, while drought is forecast for the Amazon, raising concerns about crops and river transport.
Disrupted rainfall could reduce crop yields in dry areas and delay the movement of agricultural products on Amazon rivers, while excessive rain may also hinder fieldwork. The uneven risks could support crop prices if production or logistics are affected.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.