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Brazil’s nitrogen fertilizer imports, including urea and ammonium sulfate, are about 25% behind last year’s pace and are not expected to catch up by year-end, according to Rabobank. The shortfall could constrain input availability for second-crop corn and sugarcane renewal, while Rabobank forecasts total fertilizer deliveries rising about 5% in 2027 to 46.64 million tons as demand and soil-nutrient replenishment improve.
Slower imports and higher production costs linked to European natural gas prices may tighten Brazilian nitrogen fertilizer availability and support prices. A projected demand recovery in 2027 could add to import requirements and upward price pressure.
insights.tridge.comNov 6, 2026After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 59 past bullish trade events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.7% to +10.6%), and +8.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
