
Brent and WTI recorded double-digit weekly losses as US midterm results reduced market fears of further military action and Gulf shipping disruptions. The shift in congressional control and ongoing regional diplomacy raised expectations of de-escalation.
Lower perceived risk of conflict and shipping disruption reduces the geopolitical premium in crude, pressuring prices. Renewed hostilities or disrupted Gulf flows could reverse some of that decline.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.