
Brent and WTI edged higher on Friday amid renewed fears of further US strikes on Iran, after President Donald Trump said he would soon decide whether to pursue a peace agreement or continue military action. Brent nevertheless fell 16.4% for the week, its largest percentage decline since the COVID pandemic, while WTI lost 13%.
Renewed conflict could threaten Middle Eastern crude supply, but easing war risk premiums, weaker demand and signs of an emerging surplus weighed on prices over the week.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.