
Phosphate fertilizer supplies are tight and prices are reported 25–30% above pre-Iran-war levels, while global phosphate exports fell about 10% in the first half of 2026. Sulfur availability is a key constraint because it is used to make the sulfuric acid required in phosphate production; continued trade disruptions or Chinese export limits could push prices higher.
Restricted sulfur and disrupted trade routes can constrain phosphate fertilizer production and availability, supporting higher fertilizer costs for crop producers and potentially affecting planting decisions.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.