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StoneX's fertilizer analyst says global phosphate supplies remain tight as Chinese export volumes stay far below normal and Indian stockpiles are low. Suppliers have strong pricing power because Indian demand is considered insensitive to price.
Tight supply with little near-term new production means phosphate prices are likely to stay firm or rise, raising input costs for feed and livestock producers.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleJul 31, 2025After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
StoneX notes tight global phosphate supply, very low Chinese exports and low Indian stocks with price-insensitive Indian demand, giving suppliers pricing power and supporting DAP prices.
StoneX's 31 July view that phosphate supply is tight, with Chinese exports far below normal, Indian stocks low and Indian demand price-insensitive, gives suppliers strong pricing power and supports a sharp DAP price jump.
StoneX flagged tight global phosphate supply, with Chinese exports far below normal, low Indian stocks and price-insensitive Indian demand, which gives suppliers pricing power and supports a DAP rally.
Dated on the move day, it says global phosphate supply is tight with low Chinese exports and low Indian stocks, and that suppliers have strong pricing power, which supports a sharp DAP price rise.
