Brent crude traded around $98 a barrel on Friday, recovering some earlier losses as investors weighed renewed US-Iran escalation risks against prospects for diplomacy. Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continued, while Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar; Brent was still down more than 12.5% for the week.
Further attacks or disruption around Hormuz could threaten oil supply and support Brent prices, while a diplomatic breakthrough could ease the risk premium and weigh on prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.