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BofA maintained its 2027 average forecasts of $80 per barrel for Brent and $74 for WTI, conditional on disrupted production, shipping, and refining capacity recovering. It warned that a renewed major Middle Eastern supply disruption could instead push Brent toward $150, with depleted inventories leaving less buffer against a shock.
A recovery in supply and trade routes would add crude to the market and weigh on prices, while renewed conflict could sharply tighten flows and drive prices higher. Lower crude prices could reduce energy-related feed and freight costs if the base-case recovery occurs.
exchangerates.org.ukDave TaylorNov 7, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
