
Drought and extreme summer temperatures in 2026 sharply reduced French seed production, with the French Seed Producers’ Union estimating output at only 65–70% of targets on average. Planned maize seed production is estimated at 65–70% of target, sorghum at about 70%, and sunflower at 80–85%; shortages of some varieties are prompting farmers to consider using seed from their own harvests for the next planting season.
Reduced availability of commercial seed could constrain planting choices and tighten supplies of seed for affected crops. Any effect on feed-grain markets depends on how much farmers’ acreage or yields are affected; the story points to potential upward pressure on corn and sorghum prices, but the scale is uncertain.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.