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The European Commission’s crop monitors report that the 2026 harvest is nearing completion, with yields below the five-year average for most crops. Low soil moisture is hindering rapeseed emergence and winter-cereal establishment in parts of western, central, and southeastern Europe, while excessive rain is delaying sowing and some harvest work in the Baltic states and Finland; some winter acreage may shift to spring crops.
Poor establishment or reduced winter-crop area could tighten future European rapeseed and grain supplies, lending support to prices if conditions persist. The impact is uncertain because forecast rain may improve soil moisture in dry areas and drier spells could help the wet north.
benjaminkoch.infoDr. Benjamin KochNov 6, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
