
WTI closed up 0.31% at $90.80 a barrel on Friday, while Brent edged down 0.07% to $98.22. Brent was down more than 16% for the week as traders weighed US midterm results and reports that Tehran may negotiate on nuclear issues.
Expectations of reduced conflict risk have unwound some of the oil risk premium, easing energy-cost pressure for feed production and transport. Renewed escalation could reverse that decline.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.