The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Beijing raised its forecast for China’s 2026/27 soybean imports from about 108 million to 110 million tonnes. The estimate remains below its 114-million-tonne forecast for 2025/26 and differs from the USDA’s official 115-million-tonne projection and China’s 95.5-million-tonne estimate.
The Beijing office kept its forecast for soybean crushing at 106 million tonnes, down from 108 million tonnes the previous season.
The higher import estimate signals somewhat stronger expected Chinese demand for soybeans than previously projected, offering price support. However, forecasts remain divided and the projected reduction in crushing limits the demand signal.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.