
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Beijing reported that China may import U.S. soybeans in the first half of the 2025-26 marketing year, though end-users are preparing alternatives. The attache kept its China soybean import forecast at 106 million tonnes, below USDA's official 112 million.
A possible resumption of U.S. purchases would support U.S. soybean export demand and prices. The gap with USDA's forecast shows uncertainty about how much Chinese demand will shift to the U.S.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.