
A USDA attaché in Beijing forecasts China’s soybean imports at 110 million tonnes in 2026/27, below the USDA’s official estimate of 115 million tonnes. The report says state-owned firms continue buying U.S. soybeans under the Busan agreement, while a 10% retaliatory tariff is steering commercial buyers toward South American suppliers; export sales data showed 15.1 million tonnes booked for China by October 22.
A lower import forecast than the official estimate signals potentially weaker Chinese demand and could pressure soybean prices, while the tariff redirects some buying toward South America.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.