The article says diesel prices have risen faster than crude amid disrupted Middle East routes, reduced Russian diesel output and exports, damaged or idled refineries, and low inventories. Global diesel exports were below year-earlier levels in September, while China increased exports in August and September before restricting broader fuel exports again in October.
Reduced refinery output and export availability keep diesel supply tight even if crude prices ease, supporting diesel prices and increasing freight and operating costs for feed buyers.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.