Loading…
Trump threatened to raise import tariffs on Chinese goods from Friday, undermining optimism around US-China trade talks. A Reuters poll showed short positions on the Chinese yuan at their highest since mid-December, while short bets on the Korean won surged.
Renewed trade tension raises the risk of Chinese retaliation and weaker Asian currencies, which can pressure Chinese import demand for soybeans and feed ingredients and weigh on US soy export prospects.
reuters.comAby Jose KoilparambilMay 9, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's tariff threat for Friday and yuan short positions at their highest since mid-December show speculative demand to sell CNY, adding to depreciation pressure on 2019-05-09.
Earlier in the week, Trump's tariff threat and record yuan short positioning left the market primed for sharp depreciation once escalation occurred, contributing to the move.
