
About 22,000 Mexican cattle crossed into the United States through three reopened border crossings over roughly 60 days, averaging 364 head per day—76% below Mexico’s initial expectation. USDA is reopening crossings gradually under tighter health checks linked to New World screwworm; a first group of 750 cattle also crossed at the Palomas post on October 26.
Slow border throughput limits Mexican cattle sales into the US and constrains supply available to US feedlots, potentially supporting feeder-cattle prices. The pace of reopening and disease-related inspections will determine how quickly trade recovers.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.