
WTI rose for a second day to around $90.60 a barrel as tanker attacks and risks to transit through the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about Middle Eastern oil flows. Despite the rebound, prices remained on course for a weekly decline of more than 11% amid expectations of possible de-escalation in the Iran war.
Risks to Gulf shipping could constrain export flows and support crude prices, particularly during disruptions. The broader expectation of de-escalation is weighing on the market and limiting that support.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.