
Brazilian investment firm XP raised its year-end 2026 dollar/real forecast to R$5.30 from R$5.00, and its end-2027 forecast to R$5.50 from R$5.30. The firm cited rising domestic risk perception and modeled outcomes ranging from R$5.20 if fiscal credibility improves to R$5.70 if fiscal risk increases.
A weaker real would make imported feed ingredients and other dollar-priced inputs more expensive in Brazil, while improving the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. This is a currency forecast rather than a new commodity supply or demand event.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.