The U.S. average diesel price rose nearly 40 cents in two weeks to a 2026 high of $5.65 per gallon, while ultra-low-sulfur distillate inventories fell to 103.6 million barrels, about 13% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2003. Seasonal harvest and freight demand are increasing, while record U.S. exports and reduced production abroad are contributing to tight supplies.
Low inventories amid rising seasonal demand and strong export flows tighten the diesel market, supporting higher fuel costs. More expensive diesel can raise farm operating, trucking, and broader feed-delivery costs.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.