European natural gas prices rose above €94/MWh, extending their rebound amid uncertainty over a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war and continued vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. LNG supply disruption, EU storage at about 74%, lower Norwegian pipeline flows, and colder weather with weak wind and solar generation added to concerns, although prices remained on track for a weekly decline.
Disrupted LNG flows and low inventories tighten Europe’s available supply ahead of winter, supporting gas prices. The prospect of diplomacy and the expected weekly decline temper that upward pressure.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.