The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro and a four-month low against the yen after the Fed indicated rate cuts were likely next year. The euro and pound were supported by the ECB and Bank of England holding rates higher for longer.
A broad dollar selloff on lower US rate expectations generally supports dollar-priced commodities, though the divergence in central bank messaging adds currency volatility for importers.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dovish Fed signaling rate cuts pushed the dollar to a two-week low against the euro while the ECB held rates higher for longer, directly driving the 1-day euro gain ending Dec 14.
Dollar fell to a two-week low versus the euro and a four-month low versus the yen after the Fed signaled 2024 cuts, while the ECB and BoE held a higher-for-longer stance, directly explaining the broad dollar drop.