
Brent settled up $3.67, or 3.88%, at $98.29 a barrel on Thursday, while WTI gained 2.72% to $90.52. Tanker incidents in the Gulf and uncertainty over negotiations with Iran renewed concerns about reliable oil shipments after the previous session’s steep losses.
Attacks on vessels and uncertainty over the conflict threaten the security and continuity of oil exports, supporting crude prices through a higher supply-risk premium. Higher oil can raise fuel and transport costs for feed buyers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.