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The ONI reading holds at +2.5, placing the climate in El Niño territory. Rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts is broadly normal, and MPOB data for September showed CPO output of 2,116,950 tonnes, up 16.5% month on month, with closing stocks of 2,163,173 tonnes.
Normal rain keeps near-term harvesting and transport on schedule, but El Niño's yield effect typically lags six to twelve months, so the bigger supply risk falls on 2027 output. Current peak-cycle stocks are a near-term bearish factor for palm oil prices.
analytics.palmoileconomics.comNov 5, 2026After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
