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The NOAA Climate Prediction Center put the Niño 3.4 sea surface anomaly at +2.47°C in October 2026 and sees strong to very strong conditions through January to March 2027. Above-average heat and uneven rain are slowing soil moisture recovery in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia during soybean planting.
The CPC gives 83% odds that the current event exceeds all El Niños since 1950 in the October to December period.
Planting delays in Matopiba could trim Brazil's soybean supply later in the season. The strong El Niño outlook keeps weather risk priced into soybean markets, though the immediate impact is limited.
noticiasagricolas.com.brINMETNov 5, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
