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China has still not issued export quotas for monoammonium phosphate (MAP), so exports remain tightly controlled and product must be sold domestically. Industry estimates put average theoretical MAP margins at about minus 1,264 yuan/ton in the first three quarters, with DAP around minus 1,747 yuan/ton.
Plant operating rates have fallen to multi-year lows as producers cut output, while sulfur and sulfuric acid costs have eased and phosphate rock prices have held steady.
Export quota delays and losses are forcing phosphate output cuts, tightening global phosphate supply and supporting fertilizer prices, while phosphate rock is becoming a larger share of costs and so a bigger point of contention for buyers.
yizecheng.cnNov 5, 2026After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
