
CF Industries said nitrogen supply from the Middle East will take a long time to return to normal, even if hostilities ease. The company sees robust demand for UAN and urea and expects positive nitrogen pricing through at least the first half of 2027.
A slow recovery of Middle East nitrogen exports supports urea and UAN prices into 2027, which raises feed grain production costs for farmers and can weigh on corn planting economics.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.